Working Papers

Are Populists Worried about their Children’s Futures? Intergenerational Economic Insecurity and U.S. Voting Behavior (with Lars Osberg & Stephen Law)

Abstract: More inclusive growth may foster white nationalism. Using the US Opportunity Atlas, we find an erosion of `White privilege' in most US census tracts – i.e., positive intergenerational rank mobility for visible minority groups and negative mobility for Whites. Using the 2016 American National Election Study, we show that US-born White males in states with less intergenerational mobility expressed more authoritarian ideals, greater support for Trump, and increasingly more negative feelings toward inclusivity. In states where at least one visible minority group had above average mobility, these attitudes became stronger - but were tempered when Whites also experienced above average mobility.

Dreaming of a Brighter Future? The Impact of Economic Vulnerability on University Aspirations (with Nancy Kong, Shelley Phipps, & Angela Daley)

Abstract: We examine whether there is an inequality of opportunity to achieve higher education, partially explained by aspirations for youth age 12-15 in economically vulnerable households. Using a unique Canadian dataset (2002-2008), we find that poverty is associated with reduced university aspirations from the perspective of the youth and their mother. Further, poverty depth matters less than incidence. In terms of magnitude, poverty contributes to about 10-15 percent of the observed inequality of opportunity gap (mother's education being the largest factor at 30 percent). Interestingly, economic insecurity is not associated with educational aspirations, and this result persists regardless of how we measure insecurity. Controls for academic effort, including standardized test scores, daily reading, and getting good grades do not impact these findings. Results therefore suggest that alleviating child poverty and easing post-secondary financial barriers among the poor, may help offset reduced university aspirations at a critical time in a youth's life.

The Impact of Child Benefit Reforms on Parental Health: New Evidence from Canada (with Min Hu & Angela Daley)

Abstract: The impact of the 2016 Canada Child Benefit (CCB) on parental health has not yet been evaluated. We do so using the Canadian Community Health Survey (2011-2021) and a difference-in-differences approach. We find a small yet statistically significant positive effect on self-reported general and mental health (possibly the result of increased physical activity), suggesting that the CCB provided a buffer against the average decline in parental health during our study period. The impact on maternal general health was driven by those with young children, while the impact on mental health was salient for both mothers and fathers regardless of the child’s age (which affects the amount of the transfer). An event study further indicates that improvements in mental health were fairly immediate and consistent across time. However, the CCB is unlikely to flatten the socioeconomic health gradient and may exacerbate inequalities among parents; our heterogeneity analysis indicates that improvements in parental health are concentrated among those in the upper quartiles of the income distribution and two-parent families, while the CCB was detrimental to the mental health of lone parents, despite being income-tested. We argue that policy adjustments are necessary to address health disparities (e.g., larger and/or better targeted child benefits).